Pike Creek, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS61 KPHI 020531
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1231 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will depart our area Sunday. A warm front lifts north
through the region Sunday night. A cold front moves through the
region late Monday night. High pressure will be in control for
Tuesday, followed by an approaching low pressure system Wednesday
through Thursday night. High pressure may briefly return at the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will build across the area tonight. Fair weather
will continue and winds will continue to diminish through the
early evening. Since skies will be clear, we expect temps will
drop to wintery readings tonight so we`ll shave a few degrees
off the previous lows and fcst single digits across the southern
Poconos and north NJ. Other areas will see readings bottoming
out in the teens amd low 20s for the most part.

High pressure will still be across the area for Sunday morning,
but as the day progresses, it will move northeast and off the
New England coast. Following it will be an upper system and warm
front which will bring increasing clouds to the area by the
afternoon. While overall moisture is limited, a period of snow
will probably develop across the NE PA areas and into North NJ.
We don`t have a great deal of confidence in measurable snow, so
we`ll just have chance pops for now across these areas.

The first part of Sunday night will continued to be influenced
by the upper disturbance and sfc warm front across the north.
Clouds and some light snows will be across the northern third of
the CWA with pops in the chance range until around midnight.
When all is done, perhaps a quarter or half inch of dry snow
will be across the far north areas. Again, there is still a fair
degree of uncertainty however. Lows Sunday night will mostly be
in the mid/upper 20s N/W and low/mid 30s S/E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly dry conditions are expected through this period, though the
period will start with a stationary front over our region, followed
by a cold front Monday night into Tuesday. A tight gradient in
temperatures looks to result on Monday, with areas south of the
boundary reaching into the upper 50s and potentially even low 60s in
Delmarva, while north of the front, highs will be right around 50
degrees. Depending on the timing of the cold front, highs on
Tuesday, for the southern portion of the region anyway, may be
pretty close to Monday`s highs, but are likely to be seen early in
the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern looks more active in this period. A low pressure system
with a warm front/cold front pair is likely to approach and affect
our region in the Wednesday through Thursday night time period.
However, there are some very large differences in guidance, track,
and the evolution of the low. Consequently, there is considerable
uncertainty in the timing and what type of precipitation we will see
with this system, but it does appear likely that there will be at
least widespread precipitation at some point during this period. A
few models are depicting a split flow pattern which are notoriously
hard to model and resolve more than a few days out.

High pressure and dry conditions should at least briefly build in to
the region Friday into Saturday. However, as mentioned by the
previous shift, another system may be following close behind as
early as Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight through 12Z)...VFR. Clear skies with some high
clouds moving in after midnight. Northerly winds around 4-8 kt.
High confid.

Sunday...VFR with increasing clouds. A little light snow along
with lower conditions possible for KABE. Otherwise, all other
terminals are expected to remain dry. Easterly winds around 5-10
kt early, will becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. Med-high
confid.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Light snow and some low clouds across the North
areas diminish after midnight. Decreasing clouds.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR or IFR conditions possible with rain
and/or wintry mix.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 AM on Sunday
for all Atlantic Ocean coastal waters.

NW-N winds will continue to gust around 25-30 kt this evening
before subsiding shortly after midnight. After that, winds and
seas will remain below SCA levels Sunday into Sunday night. Fair
weather much of the time. A slight chance for snow across the
northern NJ waters Sunday afternoon/evening.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...winds and seas should primarily stay below
SCA criteria through the period, though there is a chance for
elevated seas above 5 feet on the Atlantic coastal waters on
Thursday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Johnson
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/MJL/OHara
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...DeSilva/Johnson/MJL/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/Johnson/OHara